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You find my new website on http://benny1887.com/
There you find further details how to receive picks in the future.
You mainly have to options. The first one is to subscribe the service and receive all picks with best odds via eMail, the second one is subscribing the newsletter for free and receiving one free bet on almost every Monday.
In the future, I will choose the private picks function for all picks. I will not anymore post the pick as a new post a few minutes prior to a game.
Howsoever I will always make a "new post" here in the middle of the first half of each game and post the preview as well as the pick. Maybe the preview or the advice helps you to make some cash in-running.
If you have any further questions, do not hesitate to drop me an eMail to benny1887service@yahoo.com
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info:
i am a 18 years old full-time asian handicapper from braunschweig (germany). i am specialised in betting on the 2. bundesliga in germany and i succesfully bet on this league since 2 years. i believe that specialisation is the key to success, hence i only bet on this league. i know this league perfectly and thus it is not difficult for me to find value picks. due to the fact that european bookmakers have low limits and are not adapted to professional sports bettors, i only bet on asian bookmakers. also, i only bet on matchday market because the market size is much bigger on matchday. otherwise it is of course more difficult to be succesful on matchday because odds mistakes are usually corrected on early market and it is more difficult to find value picks on matchday. but the advantage are much better limits and hence the odds do not drop so quickly.
in this blog, i want to show you that it is possible to beat asian bookmakers with good analysis, huge discipline and good knowledge. i also add screenshots of my own bets to prove you that i am not a scammer but someone who is winning in asia.
if you want to give me any feedback or discuss with me, please add me in msn or use the shoutbox on the right hand side.
mailing list:
• not available at the moment - i am gonna launch a new great website in january 2012 where you get further infos how to receive my picks in the future. just visit my blog in the end of january to get further informations.
contact:
• email: benny1887service@yahoo.com
• msn: benny1887@hotmail.de
results:
• bookmakers: sbobet, ibcbet, pinnaclesports
• special bets (1x2, goal lines, euro handicaps) which i formerly took in this blog once in a while have not been considered into these statistics. only those odds which i have taken together with my customers have been filled into these spreadsheets.
• my real stats into my excel spreadsheets are significantly better than the stats here because i usually hit worse odds in blogabet due to dropped odds.
Results of 2. Bundesliga season 2009/2010:
Total: W34 - V8.5 - L26.5, Profit: +102.61, Yield: 26,72%
Results of 2. Bundesliga season 2010/2011:
Total: W71.5 - V16.5 - L73, Profit: +13,38, Yield: 1,81%
Results of 2. Bundesliga season 2011/2012:
Total: W46 - V13 - L25 Profit: +110,04, Yield: 27,37%
________________________________________________________
TOTAL: W151.5 - V38 - L124.5, Profit: +226,03, Yield: 14,81%
excel spreadsheets (verified by blogabet):
2009/2010: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=tzMu_oiLpySAa9JCCelxjCg#gid=3
2010/2011: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Ah-eKe6mmX5xdGFPdWJFX2ZhdU1uV09QWUZMd3V0U0E&hl=en#gid=3
2011/2012: https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ah-eKe6mmX5xdFljSkVKSzdtazZ5eEFmc0dpcE1uZ1E#gid=3
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+5.88
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Pick: St Pauli (+0) Result: 2:0 Stake: 6/10 Odds: 1.98
Bookmaker: PINNACLE vCash: No
Posted: Dec 19, 2011, 09:06

The market still overrates Frankfurt and hence we have the great opportunity to get some value odds in this match. Frankfurt is nothing special but the market thinks that they are something special because they have several famous players. A team like Düsseldorf who are better than Frankfurt, got a +0.5 in St Pauli and Frankfurt gets a level ball. This makes no sense at all and also we should take into consideration that Frankfurt recently showed a really poor development. Their defence does not show any improvement, best striker Mo Idrissou is out of form because he still struggles with an injury and their other great striker Jimmy Hoffer did not travel to Hamburg because of a flu. Still team quality of Frankfurt is slightly bigger than Pauli's one but not enough to negate the big home advantage of Pauli.
Pauli is actually not the best home team at all because they do not like to play against weak teams who defend very deep. But against Frankfurt, they will meet an offensive minded team and Pauli will be able to show their counter play which is their biggest strength in their own stadium. These are perfect circumstances! Pauli suprisingly lost 1:0 in Ingolstadt due to a terrible performance. But Pauli is the team with the best team spirit of the league and they are one of these teams who always recover from defeats. Last week they were arrogant and they thought that 70% or 80% would be enough to achieve a victory against a poor side but Ingolstadt punished them. They will take lessons from it and be extra motivated tonight. It was a similar situation when they played terrible at home and suprisingly lost 2:3 to Aue in September. One week later, they showed a terrific display and won 4:1 in Cottbus. They also do not have any injury worries in marked contrast to Frankfurt which should be another advantage. Hence a perfect situation for Pauli: huge motivation, an offensive minded opponent who will allow them space to counter attack, flood light and a home match in their great atmosphere.
Frankfurt lately showed a very bad development how I already wrote in my preview of last week where they got a lucky 0:0 at home against Furth. I do not remember when they showed their last really convincing performance. I think it was in October. They play bad and arrogant every week and their defence is a really bad one. They have famous players but the team spirit is not good at all and the whole team does not work well together. The defence allowed several great opportunities against Furth because Furth is along with Pauli the best counter team of the league.
Furth were stupid and they missed their chances but Pauli should be more clinical tonight. Pauli has the strongest wings of the league, they are full strength and the defence of Frankfurt is very error-prone at the moment. Especially Frankfurt's weak wing defenders will allow Pauli's superb wingers several good chances. Atmosphere in "Millerntorstadion" will be magic, Pauli plays much better than Frankfurt at the moment and hence the level ball is completely wrong here. Frankfurt has a big name, yes, but they do not act like a big team since several weeks. To sum up, we have two roughly equally strong teams but Pauli has the much better form and plays at home. Hence level ball is simply not correct here.
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Pick: Cottbus (+0) Result: 1:1 Stake: 4/10 Odds: 1.88
Bookmaker: PINNACLE vCash: No
Posted: Dec 18, 2011, 05:40

Odds have been fair yesterday but now odds raised too much on the home team, hence we are taking these odds. Cottbus have some serious problems at the moment, for instance the leaving of manager Pele Wollitz last week and the derby defeat against Dresden 7 days ago as well as a few important absences. In terms of team strength, they are still not significant weaker than the guests. Duisburg's only advantage is that they do not struggle with absences and they have the better form in general.
Nevertheless mainly due to two facts I take Cottbus here. First of all, weather will be pretty poor according to forecasts and this is an advantage for the home side. Duisburg is a team with a decent technical ability but their players are fair-weather footballers with several arrogant players like Jürgen Gjasula for instance who simply do not like such games. They prefer perfect conditions and are not good in fighting at all. Next important reason why the line here can not be the level line is that Duisburg would be completely satisfied with a draw. A draw in Cottbus would be really good and motivation will not be the best at all anyway. A very long journey, cold temperatures, bad weather and playing in a small stadium. How I already mentioned this is a matter of character too and in fact, Duisburg is a team with a very bad mentality.
And the whole team of Duisburg is not strong enough to justify having a level ball in Cottbus where much better teams like Paderborn had +0.25 lines. And Duisburg would be really happy with a draw whereas Cottbus needs the victory. And in terms of team strength, Duisburg are better but only slightly. Hence -0.25/+0.25 was the correct line and this is now a value bet.
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+2.25
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Pick: Dresden (+0.25) Result: 2:2 Stake: 5/10 Odds: 1.90
Bookmaker: PINNACLE vCash: No
Posted: Dec 18, 2011, 05:13

Not a lot to say here, hence I am going to keep myself quite short here. This game will take place without any fans due to riots of Rostock in their derby match against St Pauli several weeks ago. Only the teams, journalists and security staff will be in the stadium. Even if this would have been a normal home match, I think that odds would have been a bit to high because Rostock are too poor to be favourites against any team of the league. But due the fact that this is actually a game on neutral ground and Rostock will not have any home advantage, these odds on Dresden are a massive gift.
Dresden is superior in every aspect. Better team quality, especially in the offensive, much better form and no mentionable injury worries except a few long term absences in marked contrast to Rostock who have to relinquish several vital players. Best striker Mohamed Lartey who is their only good offensive player will still be no option as well as their suspended player Kevin Pannewitz who is actually one of their best players. Moreover Björn Ziegenbein, one of the few ray of hopes for Rostock in the offensive and a big fighter who would be essential for them in such a game, will certainly be out. Regulars Peter Schyrba, Michael Blum and Matthias Holst are serious doubts prior to this match as well. Hence the quality of Rostock will be still lower as it is anyway. Rostock's offensive is really a pathetic one, difficult to see them scoring today. Their defence is solid but the technical ability of the team is the worst one of the league for miles. They are unable to create goal chances and they lack a good converter. And a good offensive would have been really helpful since it is a matter of common knowledge that Dresden's defence has problems when being under big pressure but they will have an easy job to do against Rostock's joke offensive. Dresden has huge quality in the offensive with brilliant striker Mikael Poté leading the way. Defences of both teams are roughly equal but Dresden's team has the much, much better technical ability.
And how I already mentioned, the form of both teams is completely different, too. Rostock have a very big crisis and will certainly relegate this season and they only got one victory in this season so far which is shocking poor. Dresden have a good form, they got a very strong and deserved victory against Cottbus last week and generally they are the better team in really every aspect. Dresden is a team which recently improved a lot in away games anyway because their strategy which is based on fast breaks lately worked quite well. Hence, not any single reason why Rostock should be favourite here keeping in mind that the stadium will be completely empty and no home crowd will push them. Actually it would even worth a still bigger bet on Dresden but the fact that this will be a "ghost game" is a bit unpredictable and I can not surely say which team will feel more comfortable in this empty stadium. Nevertheless this pick on Dresden is a no-brainer because Rostock can not in a thousand years be favourites in this situation against in-form Dynamo.
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+5.05
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Pick: Bochum (-0.25) Result: 0:2 Stake: 5/10 Odds: 2.01
Bookmaker: PINNACLE vCash: No
Posted: Dec 17, 2011, 01:48

The trend is your friend - whilst Frankfurt faces a huge crisis, Bochum lately improved a lot and in terms of quality, the guests are much better anyway. How I already wrote several times in my previews, Frankfurt is a team with a non-existing home advantage. They play in front of only very few people, their performances away from home are even better than their home displays because they prefer not to make the running and hence we can get some value odds here. If this game would have been in Bochum, it would probably be a low -0.75 or perhaps even a -1 line. Now we get a -0.25 on Bochum and due to the fact that Frankfurt are weaker at home than away and because of the fact that Bochum are not remarkable worse on the road, there's actually enough said.
Nevertheless I want to explain my selection more detailed. Frankfurt has big internal problems and their manager Hans-Jürgen Boysen is likely to be sacked if Frankfurt will not get at least a draw here. Their technical ability is decent at all, nothing special but at least they can play good football. Anyway they prefer to play away from home because they are good in doing fast breaks whereas they struggle with creating chances at home when they meet a rather defensive minded opponent. Also today I think that they will have problems to score, the only dangerous thing for Bochum could be Zafer Yelen's brilliant set pieces who is their most superior player anyway. Frankfurt's best defender Gledson is out since 4 weeks now and his missing is a massive blow for them. Since he is out, they tried many different options in the central defence but their defence has always been a big mess since then. Also their strong midfielder Stark will miss this game due to his 5th yellow card. Nonetheless I want to mention that their recent performances were not as bad as the result might suggest. They collapsed twice away from home and lost 4:0 in Furth and 4:0 in Berlin but in both games, they were the team with the better start. But this is clearly a lack of quality: they start pretty well in each away match but they have no good converter in the offensive and instead only opportunity killers like Macauley Chrisantus, Babacar Gueye and Karim Benyamina. Then their very bad defence makes some individual errors, the opponents take the 1:0 lead and they collapse. At home they do not even create goal chances because they do not get so much space to counter attack. They were able to get a 2:2 at home against strong team Paderborn in their last home match but Paderborn showed one of their weakest season displays whereas Frankfurt showed their best home performance. Indeed, Frankfurt is still without a victory at home since April 2011. And this is no bad luck, it is simply inability. Away from home they would sometimes deserve a bit more but at home they are extremely poor. Generally atmosphere in Frankfurt-Bornheim is quite bad, the manager is close to be sacked, they rather have a home disadvantage than an advantage and the players lack self-confidence for sure.
Bochum started as a big promotion favourite but their start was horrible. They sacked Friedhelm Funkel and since Andreas Bergmann is their manager, they improved a lot. Still they showed some weak displays but especially their last two performances were extremely strong. They smashed Aue 6:0 at home and were able to dominate table leader Dusseldorf at home and got a 1:1 there but they could have even won this. It seems that the 6:0 was a watershed event for them and they finally use their potential. Most important to me is their good offensive. To be succesful against Frankfurt, you actually only need a good offensive with some decent converters. Frankfurt's back four will make them the one or other premature xmas present anyway and Bochum have good players to convert such situation due to their coolness. And also, Bochum has the two strong Asian strikers, Takashi Inui and Jong Tae-Se. With regard to the tactical ability, Inui is the best player of the league. His problem is that he is not very steady but if we have luck and he will have a good day, then he will be able to decide the game for his own. North Korean striker Tae-Se recently improved some too and he is a very good converter. Generally the form of many Bochum players lately improved a lot. Björn Kopplin plays a poor season but last week he was brilliant and they showed two consecutive great performances. The only negative point could be the fact that they will have the game of the year in the cup against Bayern and maybe player's will be less focussed.
But to sum up, this is clearly a pick on the away team. Very poor form vs. good form, low quality vs. siginificantly bigger quality, no home advantage vs. decent travellers, horrible back four vs. offensive with a huge technical ability and hence I love this handicap on Bochum. I really do not think that Frankfurt will be able to achieve their first season victory just in their very bad situation against a team which recently experienced such a positive tendency. Draw is possible but should be the really worst case.
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+4.9
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Pick: G Furth (+0.5) Result: 0:0 Stake: 5/10 Odds: 1.98
Bookmaker: PINNACLE vCash: No
Posted: Dec 12, 2011, 11:01
Original 2.02 @SBOBET

I remember the first game between these two teams in this season very well when Furth were the clearly better team, was 2:0 in front but still lost 2:3 through a last minute goal of Frankfurt. Howsoever this was 5 months ago and meanwhile Frankfurt improved a lot. Still, I do not think that it is justified that they are such clear favourites prior to this match. Exactly 14 days ago I took Dusseldorf -0.25 @2.00 at home vs. Furth and now Frankfurt get -0.5 at even smaller price although I rate Dusseldorf as the superior team at home. This does not make any sense and Furth recently improved some. In Dusseldorf, Furth were very unfocussed in the first half which was probably due to their lack of experience but they took lessons from it and showed a great second half where they were very close to equalise.
Frankfurt will mainly face two big problems today. The first problem is the absence of their superior striker Mo Idrissou who is in my opinion the best player of the league. The key to success against Furth is to have good individual players in the offensive and Furth also does not like to play against fast attackers. But Frankfurt's system is based on strong wing player and therefore many crosses through their wingers Constantin Djakpa, Sebastian Rode and Benjamin Köhler. This is much more easy for Furth to defend. Furth's defence is actually a very strong one but their central defenders Mergim Mavraj and Thomas Kleine do both have a big lack of swiftness. They are brilliant in the air but it is hard for them to defend against teams who use a lot of flat passes through the middle but Frankfurt's system is rather based on crosses how I already mentioned.
Furth is a team which is perfect in breaking fast and using turnovers of the opponent to counter attack. Frankfurt makes a very unfocussed impression since several weeks due to their arrogance and players like Djakpa are known as being ones who produce many unnecessary turnovers. The next crucial advantage for Furth could be Frankfurt's defence. Gordon Schildenfeld is slow and definitely Frankfurt's weak point. Bamba Anderson is actually one of my favourite players but he struggles with an injury and has a lack of form in general. Also I see a lot of potential for Furth to break fast through their right wing. Furth has Sercan Sararer, the "Arjen Robben of 2. Bundesliga", who plays on the right wing whereas Frankfurt's left back is the very offensive minded player Djakpa who does not really care for defending. His positional play is not the best at all and he will give Sararer a lot of chances on the right wing.
And generally Frankfurt recently made a much too comfortable impression during the past few weeks. For instance they were 2:0 and 3:1 in front against poor side Aachen at home but due to inactivity, Aachen still got back 3:3 and Frankfurt was lucky to win the match 4:3 through a last minute goal. Generally Frankfurt has shown a bad tendency since end of October/November. They only got a very lucky 1:1 in Ingolstadt through a last minute goal, were very lucky to win 2:1 in Aue with another last minute goal, they won 4:3 against Aachen with scoring in the 90th minute too and then they were punished for playing arrogant in Munich where they lost 2:1. Last week they recovered from their first season defeat with beating the worst team of the league (Karlsruhe) 2:0.
Hence, Frankfurt acts too arrogant and they do not do so well as the odds might suggest. Their defence is worse than Furth's one and Furth's good counter ability will be a very positive point against Frankfurt's very slow defence. In terms of tactic and discipline, Furth is superior, too. The only point which argues against Furth tonight is Furth's lack of experience, the fact that they usually lose top clashes and their defence which does not make the best impression at the moment. But Furth can easily score 1 or 2 goals here and Frankfurt are not strong enough to justify being such a strong favourite here.
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+4.6
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Pick: Aue (+0.5) Result: 1:1 Stake: 4/10 Odds: 2.15
Bookmaker: PINNACLE vCash: No
Posted: Dec 11, 2011, 03:50

In this season, Aachen did not yet show me enough to justify being such a clear favourite in this match. This game will be much more even than odds do suggest. The market overreacts because Aue was smashed 6:0 in Bochum last week but the result was misleading back then. Aue was not as bad as the result might suggest, quite the opposite, they showed a good away performance and should have actually taken the lead but Bochum scored several crazy goals through distance shots, free kicks from big distance and so on. After having been 3:0 behind in the half time, Aue gave up and still conceded the 4:0, 5:0 and 6:0.
Howsoever, I wrote last week that Aue are fine travellers who do better away than at home. They really have strong wings with Hochscheidt, Kempe and Kocer and König as the tall striker who is brilliant in the air by the way. This system is a good one: many crosses to König, huge effort and several distance shots. Aue is for sure not one of these technical high skilled teams which practise short passing play in a brilliant way or so but their strategy serves the purpose in away matches and that is the important thing. They always create many, many good goal chances in away matches and they have simply been a bit unlucky against clinical and more experienced sides in the past like for instance in Bochum 7 days ago.
But now they meet against another unexperienced and "stupid" team: Alemannia Aachen. Aachen is known for commiting several bad defence errors as well and they do not have a good conversion of chances. Also they are simply not a good team, they struggle with creating goal chances and are not good in breaking through deep defences which would be essential against Aue this time. They lately got two acceptable draws against Duisburg (2:2) and 1860 (2:2) but in both matches they have actually been nowhere near winning.
Both teams have no mentionable absences but important is that Aue convinced more in away matches than Aachen did in home games so far. Team quality is pretty even, hard to say which team is the better one. Aue will lack self confidence after this 6:0 in Bochum but how I already mentioned above, the result was misleading and they actually showed another good away display. The 6:0 smashing will not prevent me from keeping on taking Aue as an underdog in away games because I appreciate them as being really nice travellers who are able to do very well when playing on the road.
Aachen may not be such a clear favourite against a team which has at least equal quality (I even think that Aue is the slightly better side) and Aachen are poor in making the running and they generally are no good hosts whereas Aue are decent travellers. Hence I am glad to take these value odds on the guest side.
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+5.3
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Pick: Dresden (-0.25) Result: 2:1 Stake: 5/10 Odds: 2.06
Bookmaker: PINNACLE vCash: No
Posted: Dec 11, 2011, 03:40

If we just compare team strengths of both teams today, Dresden has more quality. It should be added that the home advantage in Dresden is a massive one and Cottbus has big internal problems as well as their whole back four will be out.
First of all, a few sentences about Dynamo. I appreciate them as a team which always plays with maximal effort and which is good in attacking fast. They were very unlucky not to win against Frankfurt last week at home where they have clearly been disadvantaged by the referee. Generally their offensive is a really good one and their technical ability is outstanding for a team which actually struggles against relegation. They never have problems to create goal chances, always play with huge effort and have two fantastic strikers, named Zlatko Dedic and Mickael Pote. If Dresden plays against weak sides with weak defences, they always create tons of high quality chances, not by chance they trashed Karlsruhe 5:1 at home several weeks ago and last week they would have deserved to win as well. Good midfielder Robert Koch will be out due to a yellow lock, still this shouldnt be the biggest deal ever because the quality of Marcel Heller who is likely to replace him is roughly equal.
Besides appreciating Dresden as a strong home team with a really good technical ability and powerful offensive, I must admit that this is rather a bet against Cottbus than one on Dresden. Cottbus has to recover from a big shock. On Thursday, their long-term manager Pele Wollitz who was like a friend to his players suprisingly announced that he abandons his team and will be new manager of his former club Osnabrück. Nobody expected that and it was a big shock for this very young team for sure. Former assistant coach of Wollitz, Markus Feldhoff, will take the seat on the bench ad interim. The team has a big lack of self confidence anyway but the fact that their charismatic manager Wollitz abandons his club three days before this match will for sure not help them to improve their self confidence.
But the still bigger reason to go against them will be their lower team quality today which is caused by injuries. The whole defence will be out for today's match. Besides long-term injured player Markus Brenzska, Uwe Hünemeier and Christoph Schorch will miss this game with injuries. Their back four against Dresden consists of Daniel Ziebig, Roger, Julian Börner and Konstantin Engel. Ziebig is not good but at least decent. Roger rarely has good games, usually he is an instability factor but his form lately improved some. Howsoever, Börner is totally unexperienced and at least one class weaker than Schorch. Engel is one of the weakest defenders in this league, he is extremely poor and I promise you that Dresden will owe him a few nice goal chances.
So we can summarize that Cottbus will have an extremely bad back four prior to this match. Perhaps even the worst back four of the league besides Karlsruhe's one. Börner together with Engel, that sounds really very, very poor. But this is still not everything. Their superb goalkeeper Thorsten Kirschbaum sustained an injury in the training and will be replaced by second goalkeeper Rene Renno which is another big downgrade because of the fact that Kirschbaum is a really good goalkeeper. As if this wasn't enough, their only quality striker in the squad and the only player of Cottbus who has superb quality, Dimitar Rangelov, is a serious doubt prior to this match and he has to use a splint on his hand which could potentially affect his performance quality.
So what will we see today? A hot derby match where Dresden should be clearer favourites. With regard to the team quality, Dresden is better and will have better individual players today. Also they are well-matched whereas Cottbus' back four has never played together in this formation so far. Furthermore, Dresden has one of the most fanatic home crowds in this league and the home advantage is a massive one. Last but not least Cottbus' very young team (the youngest one of the league) will still suffer from the big shock of the Wollitz-leaving which should be taken into consideration as well. So we have much better team atmosphere on the home side, better team quality, strong offensive vs. an extremely poor defence and a big home advantage and still we can grab such nice odds on the home team. Just a gift which we will for sure not miss out.
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+5.04
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Pick: Union Berlin (-0.75) Result: 4:0 Stake: 6/10 Odds: 1.84
Bookmaker: PINNACLE vCash: No
Posted: Dec 10, 2011, 02:19

Union Berlin at home against a weak team is almost always a bet on Union Berlin as well as it will be today. Union Berlin are still a little bit overrated, hence it is always easy to get value bets on them. Berlin are known as being very strong hosts with a fanatic home crowd and all their home displays in this season have been good so far. Nevertheless the difference between Union Berlin and the top teams of the league is still that Berlin has some defence problems and hence they are not yet able to beat a top team. Thus they lost at home against the top teams Greuther Furth and St Pauli but at home against weak and defensive-minded teams, they do always very well. Besides being full strength, this will be the case when they will host against one of the weakest teams of the league. Frankfurt will allow them having a lot of ball possession and these are perfect circumstances for Union. They love to make the running due to their great technical ability and playing against teams which rather use defensive minded approaches is pretty positive for them because of the fact that their back four which is they little weak point will not be pressured too much.
The technical ability of Union is absolutely superb. The South American strikers John Jairo Mosquera and Silvio are great footballers, also they have the best free kick scorer Thorsten Mattuschka in their team who is a brilliant playmaker. When they faced weak teams like Ingolstadt, Aachen, Karlsruhe, etc at home, they always did very well and won deservedly with a few goals difference. Also being full-strength is something very special for them due to the fact that they struggled with big injury worries earlier in this season.
Frankfurt is a team with decent potential but they lack fighting spirit and a good conversion of chances. Their quality in the team has to be seen as clearly lower than Union's one and they face a big crisis. Recently they improved a little bit with getting two draws in a row but the way how they did away against Dresden, who are clearly weaker than Berlin by the way, was not convincing at all. The 2:2 was lucky and advantaged by a lucky own goal as well as a doubtful penalty. Besides, they face big internal problems as well due to the fact that there are some conflicts between manager Boysen who is in doubt with his players. Frankfurt will struggle against relegation until the last match of the season I am pretty sure whereas Union Berlin is one of the best home teams in this league.
Union loves opponents like Frankfurt who are passive and weak, they will be allowed to make the running with a full-strength side in front of their fantastic home crowd and hence they should easily win this. Frankfurt must be really lucky to get a draw from Berlin but among normal circumstances, I do not see them having any chance to get something from the capital. A good home team with much more quality, an opponent who is perfect for them and in fact a club where the whole situation is great against a poor relegation canidate which faces a crisis. Correct line is -1 here and nothing else, excellent chance to win with more than one goal because the always win clearly against pathetic teams. Big confidence and how I already mentioned, circumstances must be very unlucky for Berlin today if they shouldnt win this.
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+4.2
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Pick: 1860 Munich (-0.25) Result: 3:0 Stake: 4/10 Odds: 2.05
Bookmaker: PINNACLE vCash: No
Posted: Dec 09, 2011, 09:07

This bet is actually somehow a no-brainer because of the fact that early odds were correct but now we can grab clearly value odds on the home team. Main reason to go on them is their good recent development, the return of their best striker as well as several vital absences for the guests.
Braunschweig has serious problems in their back four because of the fact that Marcel Correira and Matthias Henn did both lately sustain injuries and will be out for a longer time. Also, regular Benjamin Kessel is still no option due to a red card suspension. Benjamin Fuchs, Deniz Dogan and Jan Washausen move in for the abovementioned players but all these three guys are weaker options. Dogan is decent but he has been out for a long time and still struggles for match practise and form. Fuchs and Washausen are two big weak points in the defence. They are clearly weaker than Henn respectively Correira. Last week this new back four gave its comeback in Ingolstadt where they got a reasonable but lucky 1:0. But Ingolstadt is no criterion because of the fact that Ingolstadt is the most pathetic league team with an offensive which is currently completely out of form.
And today Braunschweig's new back four has one of the most difficult tasks of the league. 1860 and their magic square which consists of vital striker Benny Lauth who returns after having missed their last home game against Frankfurt, Djordje Rakic who is in a brilliant shape, Kevin Volland who is one of the biggest striker talents in Germany and Stefan Aigner who is in a decent shape as well. This is probably the best offensive of the league behind Frankfurt's one. This offensive vs. Braunschweig new back four should be a big advantage for the home side.
Another reason why I see 1860 beig much stronger in this period of the season is the return of defender Necat Aygün some weeks ago. Since he is part of the back four again, they improved a lot because he is vital for them with his great ball winning ability.
Another point which should be taken into account is that Braunschweig would be really happy with a draw here. As a promoted team they travel to one of the strongest league teams and a draw would be more than fine for them. All in all, 1860 has significantly more quality in the team, they are full-strength which is more than you can say for Braunschweig and they recently convinced. These odds are the definition of value odds and are hence a no-brainer.
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